Suppose the edge connectivity of a graph GG is cc. In the previous article we know that the number of cuts with weight up to kckc is bounded by O((2n)2k)O((2n)^{2k}), where kk is a real number and nn is the number of vertices in GG.

Let f(x)f(x) to be the number of cut with value xcxc and define F(k)=Σx≤kf(x)F(k) = \Sigma_{x \le k} f(x). From the discussion above, F(k)≤λ(2n)2kF(k) \le \lambda (2n)^{2k} for some constant λ\lambda.

If we remove each edge with probability pp, then the graph becomes disconnected with probability at most

Pr⁡[Disconnected]=Σxf(x)pxc. \Pr[\text{Disconnected}] = \Sigma_{x} f(x)p^{xc}.

To maximize Pr⁡[Disconnected]\Pr[\text{Disconnected}], we take F(k)=λ(2n)2kF(k) = \lambda (2n)^{2k} for every kk.

By the definition of F(k)F(k), f(k)=λ((2n)2k−(2n)2(k−1))f(k) = \lambda ((2n)^{2k} - (2n)^{2(k-1)}).

Then, for k≥2k \ge 2,

f(k)pkc=λ((2n)2k−(2n)2(k−1))pkc=λ(∫k−1k∂(2n)2x∂xdx)⋅pkc≤λ∫k−1k∂(2n)2x∂xpxcdx \begin{aligned} f(k) p^{kc} &= \lambda ((2n)^{2k} - (2n)^{2(k-1)}) p^{kc} \\ &= \lambda \left( \int_{k -1}^{k} {\partial (2n)^{2x} \over \partial x} dx \right) \cdot p^{kc} \\ &\le \lambda \int_{k -1}^{k} {\partial(2n)^{2x} \over \partial x} p^{xc}dx \end{aligned}

Sum up this inequality over kk,

Pr⁡[Disconnected]≤f(1)pc+λ∫1∞∂(2n)2x∂xpxcdx=λ(2n)2pc−λ2ln⁡2n2ln⁡2n+cln⁡p(2n)2pc \begin{aligned} \Pr[\text{Disconnected}] &\le f(1)p^c + \lambda \int_1^\infty {\partial (2n)^{2x} \over \partial x} p^{xc} dx \\ & = \lambda (2n)^2 p^c - \lambda {2\ln 2n \over 2 \ln 2n + c \ln p} (2n)^2 p^c \end{aligned}

If p=(2n)−acp = (2n)^{-{a \over c} } for some parameter aa, then Pr⁡[Disconnected]=O(n2pc/(a−2))=O(n2−a/(a−2))\Pr[\text{Disconnected}] = O(n^2 p^c / (a - 2)) = O(n^{2 - a} / (a -2)). When a=3a = 3, the graph is disconnected with probability O(1/n)O(1/n). (p.s: for large cc, p≈1−aln⁡2ncp \approx 1 - {a \ln 2n \over c})